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Thursday, May 24, 2012

5 Reasons the New York Giants Should Be Optimistic Heading into OTAs - Bleacher Report

Earlier this week we gave you a combined 16 reasons why the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins should be optimistic heading into training camp. But really, no NFC East team should have reason for optimism like the New York Giants.

After all, the Giants again defied the odds to win the Lombardi Trophy last season. Technically, that makes the odds of doing it again even lower, but it also seems as though this team has entered a state that cares not for expectations, predictions or probability. 

I guess what I'm saying is, the Giants don't need any arbitrary reasons to be optimistic. 

Well, too bad. Here are five of 'em.

1. Eli Manning is only 31 years old

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He's one of the most clutch quarterbacks in football, and after another heroic Super Bowl showing, he's got some actual franchise quarterback swagger in his step. 

After winning his first Super Bowl in 2007, Manning increased his win total by two, upped his completion percentage by four points, cut his interceptions in half and pushed his passer rating up by 12.5 the following season. 

He actually kept improving on that trajectory before an interception-riddled 2010 campaign cost him some momentum. But after another stellar season and another title, the suddenly confident Manning could be on the verge of putting up career numbers. 

Prior to Aaron Rodgers, the last four league MVPs were 30 or older. Tom Brady won it at 30 in 2007 and 33 in 2010; Peyton Manning won it at 32 and 33 in 2008 and 2009. 

In other words, Manning is probably smack dab in the middle of his prime. And based on what we've seen since from guys like Peyton and Brady and Drew Brees, who just shattered the single-season passing yards record at 32, Eli very likely has at least a handful of very good years left in him.

2. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are only going to get better

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Eli might actually have better receivers than Peyton, Brady or Brees did at the same point in their careers. Nicks and Cruz both ranked top 20 among NFL wide receivers in catches, yards and touchdowns last year, despite the fact Nicks missed a game and part of another and Cruz didn't even start until Week 9.

What's more, Cruz is 25 and Nicks is 24. Both have seen their numbers improve dramatically every year they've been in the league. In 2012, one of the league's best receiving duos could explode. 

Few tandems will wreak as much havoc over the next few seasons than Manning, Nicks and Cruz, especially if the Giants can finally establish some balance on offense. Which leads us to reason for optimism No.3...

3. The running game should be better

Well, unless the NFL adds an expansion franchise between now and the start of the season, they can't technically be any worse. The Giants ranked 32nd in the league with 3.5 yards per carry and 89.2 yards per game on the ground in 2011, which is pretty pathetic.

But there's a but here. A few of them, actually. 

First of all, during the last four weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, the Giants actually averaged 123.5 rushing yards per game, which would've ranked 12th in football. It's no coincidence that they won seven of those eight games en route to another championship parade on the Canyon of Heroes. 

Second, Ahmad Bradshaw wasn't himself for much of the season. He struggled with injuries and never found a rhythm behind a line that also was slow to get on track. But Bradshaw had a good postseason and he's healthy now. He'll have a chance to return to his exceptional 2010 form this season.

And finally, they used their first-round pick on speedy Virginia Tech back David Wilson, who's expected to provide an extra jolt as a rookie. At the very least, if/when the fragile Bradshaw gets hurt again, Wilson will be a more dangerous replacement than Brandon Jacobs was.

They're still relying on the offensive line to become a little more consistent, but it's hard to imagine this running game not improving in 2012. And those improvements should in turn help the entire offense, making Manning, Nicks and Cruz all the more effective.

4. There isn't a more dangerous pass rush in football

138322447_crop_340x234Win McNamee/Getty Images

Jury's still out on Osi Umenyiora's status for 2012, but this front seven will again bring heat regardless. I can't wait to see what Jason Pierre-Paul has in store for us in year three after putting up 16.5 sacks in his first season as a regular contributor.

Plus, there's Justin Tuck, who, like Umenyiora, had 3.5 sacks in last year's playoff run, and a steady supporting cast that includes Chris Canty and Mathias Kiwanuka.

They finished 2011 with 48 sacks, two short of the league high. But the rush actually got much more intense as the season wore on -- they had 15 sacks in the last four games of the regular season.

5. Injuries hit hard last year

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This is a strange one, but it's based on chance. What's most amazing about what the Giants did in 2011 is that they accomplished it all after being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. 

Not only did Umenyiora and Tuck miss large chunks of the season, but they lost starting corner Terrell Thomas, potential starting receiver Domenik Hixon, starting middle linebacker Jonathan Goff and backup corner Brian Witherspoon before Week 3 arrived. 

Now, Witherspoon was lost again already, so it's possible the Giants are just cursed. That said, they still won the freakin' Super Bowl despite finishing seventh in the league in adjusted games lost to injury last year, according to Football Outsiders.

Using the same metric, the Giants were ranked just below the middle of the pack with much better AGL totals in 2009 and 2010. And as you might assume, these things fluctuate quite dramatically from year to year and team to team. 

If the Giants have bad luck with injuries again, then it'll be the status quo. But if things break their way in this area, they could be even better as they attempt to defend their fourth championship in franchise history.

Editor's note: This was published just before we learned that Hakeem Nicks would be out approximately 12 weeks with a broken bone in his right foot. At least the injuries are happening earlier this year, giving players time to recover.

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