Tim Tebow reached double-digit fantasy points in all but one game he started for the Denver Broncos last season. It has led many fantasy football owners to take a chance on the New York Jets quarterback in their drafts, which is a mistake.
The former Florida standout is currently being drafted around the 138th selection, according to ESPN. That averages out to about the middle of the 11th round in standard leagues, meaning most people who draft him are doing so as their main backup QB.
Tebow is being drafted ahead of several starting quarterbacks, including Jets starter Mark Sanchez, and just behind several more. Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Bradford are barely edging out the Jets backup in drafts.
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Palmer in particular is a surprise. The Oakland Raiders signal-caller was productive down the stretch last season. Given a full offseason to prepare and an improving group of receivers, he should be a borderline fantasy starter throughout the year.
Tebow, on the other hand, falls squarely in the unknown category. First and foremost, Sanchez remains the starting quarterback in New York and it's hard to imagine that changing in the short term. If Rex Ryan has stuck with him for this long, he obviously believes in the fourth-year starter.
As long as he remains out of the starting lineup, his fantasy production will be far too inconsistent. Quarterback has developed into the most important fantasy position thanks to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Owners can't afford to take a chance on Tebow producing some magic as a backup.
Yes, the Jets are likely to work Tebow in during wildcat packages and trick plays on special teams, but nobody should want their fantasy week riding on that.
Beyond the simple fact that his playing time remains unknown, the Jets' lack of offensive firepower will hold him back even if he eventually takes over for Sanchez. The unit has been a complete mess during the preseason games.
While some may argue that exhibition games don't mean anything, the lack of offense from the Jets is definitely worrisome. The final result of the games doesn't matter, but what happens when the first-team offense is in should be noted.
In Denver, Tebow had a terrific running game and two rising stars at wide receiver to help him pull off so many wins. Fans will get to see how good Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker really are now that they have Peyton Manning throwing to them.
In New York, the outlook isn't nearly as good. Santonio Holmes is no better than an average top target and his per-catch average has declined significantly from his early years in the league. Stephen Hill is only a rookie. The rest of the receivers are marginal options at best.
Is Tebow worth owning in fantasy football?
Is Tebow worth owning in fantasy football?
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Yes, he has good upside.
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No, too much risk involved.
More importantly, the Jets rushing attack is nowhere near as potent as the one in Denver. Shonn Greene has never established himself as a go-to back and his backups aren't going to carry the load on their shoulders, either.
That means defensive coordinators, who have now had around seven months to study Tebow tape from his surprising run with the Broncos, can key in on stopping him if he enters the starting lineup. The novelty factor is gone.
Having a reliable backup quarterback is crucial in fantasy football, especially if an owner misses out on one of the top-tier options at the position. Choosing Tebow to fill the void is simply a risk not worth taking on draft day.
Go with one of the aforementioned options or another starter instead. Sometimes the safe option is the right one, and this is one of those times.
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